Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Cerezo Osaka (W)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.8% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 45.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.6% 3.49 DRAW 29.2% 3.18 AWAY 44.2% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerezo Osaka (W) Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerezo Osaka (W) Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerezo Osaka (W) Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Cerezo Osaka (W) ↓ -0.51 (-12.8%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) ↑ +0.30 (+16.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.