Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

03 Oct 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.9% DRAW 18.5% AWAY 13.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.0% 1.48 DRAW 19.7% 4.97 AWAY 14.3% 6.82

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots 13.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) ↑ +0.18 (+13.8%)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) ↓ -0.68 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.