Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

21 Sep 2026 · 03:15

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.3 pp

Llaneros

Atletico Nacional Medellin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.5% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 59.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.0% 4.56 DRAW 25.9% 3.70 AWAY 53.1% 1.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Atletico Nacional Medellin substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.4% win probability, compared with 53.1% implied by the market. The 6.3 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Llaneros Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 17.3 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Llaneros Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Llaneros Atletico Nacional Medellin

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Llaneros ↑ +0.01 (+0.1%)

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↑ +0.04 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.