Sporting JAX (W) vs Lexington SC (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Sporting JAX (W)

Lexington SC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 29.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.29 DRAW 28.4% 3.30 AWAY 30.7% 3.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lexington SC (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sporting JAX (W) Lexington SC (W)

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sporting JAX (W) Lexington SC (W)

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Sporting JAX (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sporting JAX (W) Lexington SC (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sporting JAX (W) ↑ +0.29 (+14.5%)

Lexington SC (W) ↓ -0.23 (-7.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.