FKS Ukmerge vs Nevezis

02 Oct 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

FKS Ukmerge

Nevezis

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.9% DRAW 20.8% AWAY 56.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.6% 4.22 DRAW 21.6% 4.42 AWAY 55.8% 1.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nevezis

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FKS Ukmerge Nevezis

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours Nevezis, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FKS Ukmerge Nevezis

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FKS Ukmerge Nevezis

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

FKS Ukmerge ↑ +0.62 (+17.2%)

Nevezis ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.