Umeå FC Academy vs IFK Umeå

30 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Umeå FC Academy

IFK Umeå

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.3% DRAW 8.5% AWAY 5.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.5% 1.15 DRAW 10.3% 9.30 AWAY 6.2% 15.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Umeå FC Academy relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 86.3% win probability, compared with 83.5% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Umeå FC Academy

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Umeå FC Academy IFK Umeå

Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 5.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Umeå FC Academy, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Umeå FC Academy IFK Umeå

Shots allowed 1.3 · On target allowed 0.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Umeå FC Academy has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Umeå FC Academy IFK Umeå

The combined recent performance profile favours Umeå FC Academy.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Umeå FC Academy ↓ -0.28 (-19.6%)

IFK Umeå ↑ +10.25 (+195.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.