Tenerife vs Cadiz

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Tenerife

Cadiz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.8% DRAW 28.8% AWAY 17.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% 1.90 DRAW 29.3% 3.30 AWAY 19.8% 4.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tenerife relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.8% win probability, compared with 50.9% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tenerife has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tenerife Cadiz

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tenerife Cadiz

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Tenerife has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tenerife Cadiz

The combined recent performance profile favours Tenerife.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tenerife ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

Cadiz ↑ +0.11 (+2.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.