Leganes vs CD Castellon

28 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Leganes

CD Castellon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 43.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.7% 3.27 DRAW 28.2% 3.45 AWAY 42.2% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

CD Castellon has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leganes CD Castellon

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leganes CD Castellon

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

CD Castellon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leganes CD Castellon

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Leganes ↓ -0.05 (-1.5%)

CD Castellon = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.