Eibar vs Las Palmas

27 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Eibar

Las Palmas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 22.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.1% 1.80 DRAW 26.6% 3.66 AWAY 19.3% 5.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Las Palmas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.6% win probability, compared with 19.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Las Palmas

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Eibar Las Palmas

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Eibar Las Palmas

Shots allowed 23.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Las Palmas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Eibar Las Palmas

The combined recent performance profile favours Las Palmas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Eibar ↓ -0.20 (-10.1%)

Las Palmas ↑ +0.85 (+20.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.