Marquense vs Antigua GFC

03 Oct 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Marquense

Antigua GFC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 23.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% 2.06 DRAW 26.9% 3.61 AWAY 26.1% 3.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Marquense relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.9% win probability, compared with 47.1% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Marquense

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Marquense Antigua GFC

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Marquense Antigua GFC

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Marquense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Marquense Antigua GFC

The combined recent performance profile favours Marquense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Marquense ↓ -0.54 (-20.8%)

Antigua GFC ↑ +0.31 (+9.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.