Marquense vs Malacateco

27 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Marquense

Malacateco

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 27.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.6% 2.04 DRAW 28.6% 3.25 AWAY 25.8% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Malacateco

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Marquense Malacateco

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Malacateco, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Marquense Malacateco

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Malacateco has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Marquense Malacateco

The combined recent performance profile favours Malacateco.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Marquense ↑ +0.09 (+4.6%)

Malacateco ↑ +0.10 (+2.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.