Xelaju vs Antigua GFC

24 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Xelaju

Antigua GFC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.8% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 21.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.1% 2.08 DRAW 30.0% 3.20 AWAY 23.9% 4.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Xelaju relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.8% win probability, compared with 46.1% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Xelaju has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Xelaju Antigua GFC

Shots 14.8 · On target 8.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Xelaju, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Xelaju Antigua GFC

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Xelaju has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Xelaju Antigua GFC

The combined recent performance profile favours Xelaju.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Xelaju ↑ +0.08 (+4.0%)

Antigua GFC ↑ +0.82 (+25.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.