Amorebieta vs Ourense

26 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Amorebieta

Ourense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.1% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 26.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.27 DRAW 28.8% 3.40 AWAY 28.2% 3.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Amorebieta

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Amorebieta Ourense

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Amorebieta Ourense

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.0

Amorebieta has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Amorebieta Ourense

The combined recent performance profile favours Amorebieta.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Amorebieta ↑ +0.60 (+36.3%)

Ourense ↓ -0.53 (-13.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.