Numancia vs CD Guadalajara

27 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Numancia

CD Guadalajara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.6% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 24.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% 1.93 DRAW 28.0% 3.40 AWAY 22.7% 4.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Guadalajara

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Numancia CD Guadalajara

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 15.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours CD Guadalajara, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Numancia CD Guadalajara

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Numancia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Numancia CD Guadalajara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Numancia ↓ -0.04 (-1.8%)

CD Guadalajara ↑ +0.66 (+18.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.