Calvo Sotelo vs Atletico Tordesillas

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Calvo Sotelo

Atletico Tordesillas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.7% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 23.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.4% 2.04 DRAW 28.7% 3.30 AWAY 24.9% 3.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Calvo Sotelo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Calvo Sotelo Atletico Tordesillas

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Tordesillas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Calvo Sotelo Atletico Tordesillas

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Calvo Sotelo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Calvo Sotelo Atletico Tordesillas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Calvo Sotelo ↓ -0.16 (-7.3%)

Atletico Tordesillas ↑ +0.76 (+24.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.