CF Lorca Deportiva vs UD Castellonense

27 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

CF Lorca Deportiva

UD Castellonense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 31.2% AWAY 23.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.0% 2.25 DRAW 31.2% 3.10 AWAY 25.8% 3.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CF Lorca Deportiva relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.8% win probability, compared with 43.0% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CF Lorca Deportiva

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CF Lorca Deportiva UD Castellonense

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 3.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours CF Lorca Deportiva, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CF Lorca Deportiva UD Castellonense

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.5

UD Castellonense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CF Lorca Deportiva UD Castellonense

The combined recent performance profile favours CF Lorca Deportiva.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CF Lorca Deportiva ↑ +0.05 (+2.3%)

UD Castellonense ↑ +0.88 (+30.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.