Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

18 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.5% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 42.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.1% 2.67 DRAW 25.0% 3.75 AWAY 39.9% 2.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Shots 15.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 16.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.8

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

The combined recent performance profile favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki ↑ +0.44 (+19.7%)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki ↓ -0.28 (-10.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.