MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs LKS Lomza

25 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.0 pp

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

LKS Lomza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.1% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 18.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.2% 1.69 DRAW 22.0% 4.31 AWAY 21.8% 4.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.1% win probability, compared with 56.2% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki LKS Lomza

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki LKS Lomza

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.5

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki LKS Lomza

The combined recent performance profile favours MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki ↑ +0.21 (+14.1%)

LKS Lomza ↓ -0.55 (-11.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.