Carmarthen vs Llantwit Major

02 Oct 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Carmarthen

Llantwit Major

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.8% DRAW 17.8% AWAY 17.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.1% 1.57 DRAW 19.5% 4.92 AWAY 19.4% 4.96

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Carmarthen relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.8% win probability, compared with 61.1% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Carmarthen has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Carmarthen Llantwit Major

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Carmarthen, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Carmarthen Llantwit Major

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Carmarthen Llantwit Major

The combined recent performance profile favours Carmarthen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Carmarthen ↑ +0.16 (+11.5%)

Llantwit Major ↓ -1.54 (-23.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.