Llanelli Town vs Baglan Dragons

02 Oct 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Llanelli Town

Baglan Dragons

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 47.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% 3.09 DRAW 24.4% 3.91 AWAY 44.7% 2.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Baglan Dragons relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.8% win probability, compared with 44.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Llanelli Town

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Llanelli Town Baglan Dragons

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Llanelli Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Llanelli Town Baglan Dragons

Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 10.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Baglan Dragons has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Llanelli Town Baglan Dragons

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Llanelli Town ↓ -0.72 (-18.8%)

Baglan Dragons ↑ +0.28 (+15.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.