Caerau Ely vs Afan Lido

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Caerau Ely

Afan Lido

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.8% DRAW 16.0% AWAY 13.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.3% 1.42 DRAW 17.8% 5.36 AWAY 14.9% 6.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Caerau Ely relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.8% win probability, compared with 67.3% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Caerau Ely has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Caerau Ely Afan Lido

Shots 11.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Caerau Ely, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Caerau Ely Afan Lido

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Caerau Ely has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Caerau Ely Afan Lido

The combined recent performance profile favours Caerau Ely.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Caerau Ely ↓ -0.14 (-9.1%)

Afan Lido ↑ +1.35 (+26.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.