Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim

20 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Paderborn

TSG Hoffenheim

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 56.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.4% 3.97 DRAW 22.2% 4.37 AWAY 53.4% 1.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for TSG Hoffenheim relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.3% win probability, compared with 53.4% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

TSG Hoffenheim has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paderborn TSG Hoffenheim

Shots 13.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 18.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours TSG Hoffenheim, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paderborn TSG Hoffenheim

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5

TSG Hoffenheim has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paderborn TSG Hoffenheim

The combined recent performance profile favours TSG Hoffenheim.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Paderborn ↓ -0.64 (-13.8%)

TSG Hoffenheim ↑ +0.09 (+5.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.