Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Denbigh Town

Holyhead Hotspur

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.3% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.5% 1.78 DRAW 21.4% 4.46 AWAY 25.1% 3.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Denbigh Town relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.3% win probability, compared with 53.5% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Denbigh Town

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Denbigh Town Holyhead Hotspur

Shots 12.5 · On target 7.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Denbigh Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Denbigh Town Holyhead Hotspur

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Denbigh Town Holyhead Hotspur

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Denbigh Town ↑ +0.05 (+3.1%)

Holyhead Hotspur ↑ +0.31 (+8.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.