Real Aviles CF vs Lugo

02 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Real Aviles CF

Lugo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 33.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.30 DRAW 26.6% 3.66 AWAY 31.2% 3.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Lugo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Aviles CF Lugo

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Aviles CF Lugo

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Lugo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Aviles CF Lugo

The combined recent performance profile favours Lugo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Aviles CF ↓ -0.08 (-3.3%)

Lugo ↑ +0.25 (+8.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.