Merida vs UD Logrones

27 Sep 2026 · 18:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Merida

UD Logrones

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 38.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% 2.77 DRAW 29.1% 3.23 AWAY 36.9% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: UD Logrones

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Merida UD Logrones

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours UD Logrones, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Merida UD Logrones

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 2.8

UD Logrones has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Merida UD Logrones

The combined recent performance profile favours UD Logrones.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Merida ↑ +0.15 (+5.5%)

UD Logrones ↑ +0.18 (+7.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.