KAC 1909 vs SV Spittal/Drau

25 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

KAC 1909

SV Spittal/Drau

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.3% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.0% 1.71 DRAW 23.1% 4.00 AWAY 22.9% 4.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for KAC 1909 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.3% win probability, compared with 54.0% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

KAC 1909 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

KAC 1909 SV Spittal/Drau

Shots 14.3 · On target 7.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours KAC 1909, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

KAC 1909 SV Spittal/Drau

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

KAC 1909 SV Spittal/Drau

The combined recent performance profile favours KAC 1909.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

KAC 1909 ↑ +0.14 (+8.8%)

SV Spittal/Drau ↓ -0.07 (-1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.