ATUS Ferlach vs Nussdorf

02 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

ATUS Ferlach

Nussdorf

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.6% DRAW 10.8% AWAY 6.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.2% 1.22 DRAW 12.8% 7.55 AWAY 8.0% 12.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for ATUS Ferlach relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.6% win probability, compared with 79.2% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

ATUS Ferlach has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

ATUS Ferlach Nussdorf

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 4.3 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours ATUS Ferlach, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ATUS Ferlach Nussdorf

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 5.3

ATUS Ferlach has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ATUS Ferlach Nussdorf

The combined recent performance profile favours ATUS Ferlach.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

ATUS Ferlach ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

Nussdorf ↑ +4.50 (+60.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.