De Treffers vs Spakenburg

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

De Treffers

Spakenburg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.1% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 32.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% 2.04 DRAW 23.4% 4.11 AWAY 29.6% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Spakenburg relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.3% win probability, compared with 29.6% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Spakenburg has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

De Treffers Spakenburg

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

De Treffers Spakenburg

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Spakenburg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

De Treffers Spakenburg

The combined recent performance profile favours Spakenburg.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

De Treffers ↑ +0.28 (+15.9%)

Spakenburg ↓ -0.30 (-8.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.