Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena

30 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Union Magdalena

Real Cartagena

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.5% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 29.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.4% 2.29 DRAW 27.2% 3.58 AWAY 30.4% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Cartagena

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Magdalena Real Cartagena

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Magdalena Real Cartagena

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Magdalena Real Cartagena

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Union Magdalena ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

Real Cartagena ↓ -0.02 (-0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.