Real Cartagena vs Envigado FC

22 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Real Cartagena

Envigado FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 17.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% 1.73 DRAW 26.4% 3.60 AWAY 18.6% 5.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Real Cartagena has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Cartagena Envigado FC

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Real Cartagena, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Cartagena Envigado FC

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Cartagena Envigado FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Cartagena.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Cartagena ↓ -0.03 (-1.9%)

Envigado FC ↑ +0.10 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.