Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC

21 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Bogota FC

Barranquilla FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 17.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% 1.67 DRAW 24.3% 3.90 AWAY 18.8% 5.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bogota FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.4% win probability, compared with 56.9% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bogota FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

Shots 11.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Bogota FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Bogota FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Bogota FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bogota FC ↓ -0.03 (-1.8%)

Barranquilla FC ↑ +0.15 (+3.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.