San Francisco FC vs UMECIT

03 Oct 2026 · 03:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

San Francisco FC

UMECIT

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 33.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% 2.45 DRAW 26.4% 3.77 AWAY 32.9% 3.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the away side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

San Francisco FC UMECIT

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

San Francisco FC UMECIT

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.5

UMECIT has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

San Francisco FC UMECIT

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

San Francisco FC ↓ -0.03 (-1.2%)

UMECIT ↑ +0.49 (+19.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.