UMECIT vs Union Cocle

22 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

UMECIT

Union Cocle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 31.5% AWAY 27.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% 2.30 DRAW 31.2% 3.00 AWAY 28.2% 3.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: UMECIT

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

UMECIT Union Cocle

Shots 5.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 6.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UMECIT Union Cocle

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UMECIT Union Cocle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UMECIT ↑ +0.41 (+21.6%)

Union Cocle ↓ -0.63 (-15.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.