Okinawa SV vs FC Tiamo Hirakata

21 Sep 2026 · 08:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Okinawa SV

FC Tiamo Hirakata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.1% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 31.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% 2.40 DRAW 27.6% 3.30 AWAY 34.4% 2.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Okinawa SV relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.1% win probability, compared with 38.0% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Okinawa SV has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Okinawa SV FC Tiamo Hirakata

Shots 17.8 · On target 7.0 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Okinawa SV FC Tiamo Hirakata

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Okinawa SV has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Okinawa SV FC Tiamo Hirakata

The combined recent performance profile favours Okinawa SV.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Okinawa SV ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

FC Tiamo Hirakata ↑ +0.20 (+8.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.