AGF (W) vs FC Nordsjaelland (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

AGF (W)

FC Nordsjaelland (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 0.7% DRAW 5.8% AWAY 93.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 1.4% 70.00 DRAW 8.0% 12.00 AWAY 90.6% 1.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Nordsjaelland (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 93.5% win probability, compared with 90.6% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Nordsjaelland (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AGF (W) FC Nordsjaelland (W)

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 24.5 · On target 12.3

Recent attacking output favours FC Nordsjaelland (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AGF (W) FC Nordsjaelland (W)

Shots allowed 25.0 · On target allowed 11.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.8

FC Nordsjaelland (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AGF (W) FC Nordsjaelland (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Nordsjaelland (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AGF (W) ↑ +53.00 (+311.8%)

FC Nordsjaelland (W) ↓ -0.04 (-3.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.