First Vienna II vs Sportunion Mauer

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.6 pp

First Vienna II

Sportunion Mauer

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.4% DRAW 23.8% AWAY 54.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.5% 3.67 DRAW 25.3% 3.70 AWAY 49.2% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sportunion Mauer clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.8% win probability, compared with 49.2% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sportunion Mauer has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

First Vienna II Sportunion Mauer

Shots 9.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 17.5 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Sportunion Mauer, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

First Vienna II Sportunion Mauer

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Sportunion Mauer has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

First Vienna II Sportunion Mauer

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportunion Mauer.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

First Vienna II ↓ -0.81 (-17.9%)

Sportunion Mauer ↑ +0.30 (+18.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.