Red Star Penzing vs TWL Elektra

02 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Red Star Penzing

TWL Elektra

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.6% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 24.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.94 DRAW 22.5% 4.26 AWAY 28.1% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Red Star Penzing clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.6% win probability, compared with 49.4% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Red Star Penzing

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Red Star Penzing TWL Elektra

Shots 8.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Red Star Penzing TWL Elektra

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Red Star Penzing has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Red Star Penzing TWL Elektra

The combined recent performance profile favours Red Star Penzing.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Red Star Penzing ↓ -0.17 (-7.9%)

TWL Elektra ↑ +0.70 (+25.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.