Tamworth vs Sutton Utd

30 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Tamworth

Sutton Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.3% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 37.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.36 DRAW 24.1% 4.05 AWAY 34.5% 2.83

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sutton Utd relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.3% win probability, compared with 34.5% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sutton Utd

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tamworth Sutton Utd

Shots 10.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tamworth Sutton Utd

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Sutton Utd has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tamworth Sutton Utd

The combined recent performance profile favours Sutton Utd.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Tamworth ↑ +0.19 (+8.8%)

Sutton Utd ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.