Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.1 pp

Hartlepool

Harrogate Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.4% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 56.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.8% 3.75 DRAW 23.9% 4.06 AWAY 50.3% 1.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Harrogate Town substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.4% win probability, compared with 50.3% implied by the market. The 6.1 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Harrogate Town has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hartlepool Harrogate Town

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Harrogate Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hartlepool Harrogate Town

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Harrogate Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hartlepool Harrogate Town

The combined recent performance profile favours Harrogate Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Hartlepool ↑ +0.87 (+30.3%)

Harrogate Town ↓ -0.25 (-11.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.