AFC Fylde vs Carlisle

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

AFC Fylde

Carlisle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.7% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 36.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% 2.35 DRAW 23.1% 4.26 AWAY 35.1% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Carlisle

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

AFC Fylde Carlisle

Shots 10.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Carlisle, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AFC Fylde Carlisle

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AFC Fylde Carlisle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

AFC Fylde ↓ -0.03 (-1.1%)

Carlisle ↑ +0.30 (+12.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.