Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava

03 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Tepatitlan FC

Jaiba Brava

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.7% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 61.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.9% 4.47 DRAW 20.4% 4.80 AWAY 57.6% 1.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Jaiba Brava relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.5% win probability, compared with 57.6% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Jaiba Brava

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tepatitlan FC Jaiba Brava

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tepatitlan FC Jaiba Brava

Shots allowed 20.5 · On target allowed 9.5 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Jaiba Brava has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tepatitlan FC Jaiba Brava

The combined recent performance profile favours Jaiba Brava.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Tepatitlan FC ↓ -0.25 (-5.3%)

Jaiba Brava ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.