NK Sencur vs NK Rudar Trbovlje

20 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.2 pp

NK Sencur

NK Rudar Trbovlje

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.0% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.8% 1.83 DRAW 23.4% 3.98 AWAY 25.8% 3.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates NK Sencur substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.0% win probability, compared with 50.8% implied by the market. The 6.2 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NK Sencur has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Sencur NK Rudar Trbovlje

Shots 14.0 · On target 7.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours NK Sencur, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Sencur NK Rudar Trbovlje

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3

NK Sencur has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Sencur NK Rudar Trbovlje

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Sencur.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

NK Sencur ↓ -0.17 (-8.5%)

NK Rudar Trbovlje ↑ +0.43 (+13.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.