Aliaga Futbol AS vs Sanliurfaspor

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Aliaga Futbol AS

Sanliurfaspor

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 34.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% 2.68 DRAW 27.7% 3.34 AWAY 37.8% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Aliaga Futbol AS relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.0% win probability, compared with 34.5% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Aliaga Futbol AS

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aliaga Futbol AS Sanliurfaspor

Shots 10.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 4.3 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Aliaga Futbol AS, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aliaga Futbol AS Sanliurfaspor

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.5

Sanliurfaspor has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aliaga Futbol AS Sanliurfaspor

The combined recent performance profile favours Aliaga Futbol AS.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Aliaga Futbol AS ↓ -0.96 (-26.4%)

Sanliurfaspor ↑ +0.59 (+31.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.