Adana Demirspor vs Erbaaspor

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Adana Demirspor

Erbaaspor

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.4% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 71.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.8% 8.70 DRAW 20.3% 4.63 AWAY 68.9% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Erbaaspor relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.5% win probability, compared with 68.9% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Adana Demirspor

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Adana Demirspor Erbaaspor

Shots 4.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 2.0 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Adana Demirspor, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Adana Demirspor Erbaaspor

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 0.8

Erbaaspor has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Adana Demirspor Erbaaspor

The combined recent performance profile favours Erbaaspor.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Adana Demirspor ↑ +5.46 (+168.5%)

Erbaaspor ↓ -0.56 (-29.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.