Hamilton vs Cowdenbeath

23 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Hamilton

Cowdenbeath

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 84.8% DRAW 9.9% AWAY 5.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 81.9% 1.15 DRAW 11.8% 8.00 AWAY 6.3% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hamilton relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 84.8% win probability, compared with 81.9% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hamilton has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hamilton Cowdenbeath

Shots 16.0 · On target 9.0 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Hamilton, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hamilton Cowdenbeath

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Hamilton has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hamilton Cowdenbeath

The combined recent performance profile favours Hamilton.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hamilton ↓ -0.02 (-1.4%)

Cowdenbeath ↑ +2.00 (+15.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.