Needham Market vs Stamford

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Needham Market

Stamford

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.8% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 10.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.0% 1.38 DRAW 17.8% 5.44 AWAY 12.2% 7.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Needham Market relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.8% win probability, compared with 70.0% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Needham Market has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Needham Market Stamford

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Needham Market, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Needham Market Stamford

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Needham Market has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Needham Market Stamford

The combined recent performance profile favours Needham Market.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Needham Market ↑ +0.04 (+2.8%)

Stamford ↑ +0.63 (+8.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.