Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Recoleta

20 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Sportivo Luqueno

Deportivo Recoleta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 28.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.5% 2.15 DRAW 26.4% 3.63 AWAY 29.1% 3.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sportivo Luqueno

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Luqueno Deportivo Recoleta

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Sportivo Luqueno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Luqueno Deportivo Recoleta

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Luqueno Deportivo Recoleta

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sportivo Luqueno ↓ -0.07 (-3.0%)

Deportivo Recoleta ↑ +0.24 (+7.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.