Real Madrid B vs Atletico Madrid B

02 Oct 2026 · 21:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Real Madrid B

Atletico Madrid B

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.1% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 23.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.2% 1.86 DRAW 23.2% 4.20 AWAY 24.6% 3.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Madrid B

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Madrid B Atletico Madrid B

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Madrid B, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Madrid B Atletico Madrid B

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Real Madrid B has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Madrid B Atletico Madrid B

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Madrid B ↓ -0.04 (-2.2%)

Atletico Madrid B ↑ +0.27 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.