Real Madrid B vs Alcorcon

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Real Madrid B

Alcorcon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.6% 1.98 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 24.7% 3.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Madrid B Alcorcon

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Madrid B Alcorcon

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Madrid B Alcorcon

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Real Madrid B ↓ -0.17 (-7.9%)

Alcorcon ↑ +0.71 (+22.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.