Atletico Madrid B vs Villarreal B

25 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Atletico Madrid B

Villarreal B

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.5% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 34.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% 2.42 DRAW 27.6% 3.40 AWAY 33.6% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Madrid B

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Madrid B Villarreal B

Shots 12.3 · On target 6.0 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Madrid B Villarreal B

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Villarreal B has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Madrid B Villarreal B

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Madrid B ↑ +0.27 (+12.6%)

Villarreal B ↓ -0.14 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.